Canola Futures: What’s Been Happening and What’s Next?
If you’ve been keeping an eye on canola futures, you know the past 15 months have been anything but boring. From January 2024 to April 2025, prices have zigzagged, driven by everything from drought scares to trade spats with China.
As someone who’s followed commodity markets for a while, I’ve pieced together the story behind these price swings, why they happened, and what might be coming next. Let’s dive in.
The Price Rollercoaster: January 2024 to April 2025
January 2024: Holding Steady
What Happened: Canola futures kicked off the year around $650–$670 CAD per metric ton, staying pretty flat.
Why: Canada’s canola stocks were tight—down 36% from the year before, according to Statistics Canada. That kept prices from slipping. But demand wasn’t crazy either; China was buying, but not enough to push prices up. Plus, soybean prices were soft globally, which held canola back since the two often move together. It felt like the market was just waiting for something to shake things up.
February–March 2024: A Dip
What Happened: Prices slid to $620–$640 CAD/MT, a noticeable drop.
Why: This time of year is often quiet for canola—farmers are prepping for planting, and buyers hold back, as Alberta Agriculture’s seasonal charts show. Soybean and European rapeseed prices were also sagging, dragging canola down with them. Then there was buzz about China looking into Canadian canola for “anti-dumping” issues, which spooked traders. It wasn’t a full-blown crisis, but the uncertainty didn’t help.
April–June 2024: Bouncing Back
What Happened: By June, prices were climbing, hitting $680–$700 CAD/MT.
Why: Things started looking up. Stocks were even tighter—19% below 2023 levels, per StatsCan. Canada’s canola-crushing plants were running at full tilt, setting a first-quarter record thanks to new biodiesel facilities. Exports to China were ahead of schedule, despite the trade noise. And then there was the weather: dry patches in Western Canada had farmers worried about the 2024 crop. That combo lit a fire under prices.
July–September 2024: Up, Then Down
What Happened: Prices spiked to $720 CAD/MT in July but cooled to $670–$690 by September.
Why: Canola often peaks mid-year before harvest pressure kicks in, and 2024 was no different. Rains in May and June eased drought fears, so traders started selling to lock in gains. Big global soybean and palm oil supplies didn’t help either, keeping a lid on canola. China’s trade probe was still looming, making exporters nervous. It was a classic case of the market getting ahead of itself, then correcting.
October–December 2024: Back in the Game
What Happened: Prices rallied again, landing at $700–$710 CAD/MT by year-end.
Why: StatsCan confirmed stocks were down to 11.38 million tonnes—tight by any measure. Crushers were still going strong, with margins above $150/MT, so they kept bidding up canola. Soyoil and rapeseed futures were climbing too, giving canola a boost. A weaker Canadian dollar also made our exports more attractive, which farmers loved. It felt like the market was finding its groove.
January–April 2025: Skyrocketing
What Happened: Prices shot up, jumping about $60/MT from March to $730–$750 CAD/MT by April.
Why: The supply crunch got real—global canola stocks-to-use ratios dropped to 7%, tighter than the 9% average. Canada was still exporting like champs, hitting 7.5 million tonnes despite China’s grumbling. The U.S. started buying more canola for biofuels, thanks to USMCA tariff breaks. And with El Niño rumors swirling, traders were betting on tricky planting conditions for 2025. It was a perfect storm for higher prices.
What’s Driving Canola Prices Going Forward?
So, what’s next? If I’ve learned anything from watching canola markets, it’s that they’re never dull. Here are the big factors I think will shape prices beyond April 2025:
Weather Woes (or Wins)
Canola’s a diva when it comes to weather. Too dry or too wet in Western Canada during planting (April–May) or flowering (July), and yields suffer, pushing prices up. Good weather, though, could flood the market and pull prices down. Last year’s July dryness kept the 2024 crop from being a blockbuster, so keep an eye on forecasts.
Trade Drama
China’s anti-dumping probe is the elephant in the room. If they slap restrictions on Canadian canola, it could hurt, since they take 75% of our exports. But Canada’s got other buyers—Europe, Japan, and the U.S.—and USMCA helps. Trade tensions caused jitters in 2024 but didn’t tank the market, so diversification might save the day.
Soybeans and Friends
Canola doesn’t move in a vacuum. If soybean, rapeseed, or palm oil prices tank due to big supplies or weak demand, canola could follow. But if those markets tighten up, canola might ride their coattails. Soybean rallies gave canola a lift in 2024, so watch Chicago futures closely.
Crushing It (Literally)
Canada’s canola-crushing plants are hungrier than ever, especially with new biodiesel projects. Strong domestic demand could keep prices firm, even if exports hit a snag. The record crush in Q1 2024 showed how much this matters.
The Loonie’s Dance
A weaker Canadian dollar makes our canola cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting farmer prices. A stronger dollar does the opposite. In 2024, a weaker loonie helped exports, and a 1% drop in the CAD often lifts crop receipts by 0.7%.
Global Appetite
Canola’s a star in healthy oils and biofuels. Growing demand, especially in the U.S. and Asia, could push prices higher. But if the global economy slows, demand might stall. The U.S. biofuel boom in 2025 gave prices a kick, so watch for more of that.
Wrapping It Up
The canola futures market from January 2024 to April 2025 has been a wild ride, with tight supplies, crushing demand, and trade tensions keeping everyone on their toes. Going forward, weather, trade policies, and global oilseed trends will call the shots. Whether you’re a farmer, trader, or just curious, staying on top of these factors is key to navigating this market. It’s not for the faint of heart, but that’s what makes it fascinating.
Disclaimer:
I’m sharing what I’ve learned, but this isn’t financial advice. Commodity markets like canola are volatile, and there’s always risk involved. Prices can swing for reasons I haven’t covered. Before jumping in, talk to a financial advisor or do your own homework. Past trends don’t guarantee what’s coming next.
Sources:
- Statistics Canada: Canola stock updates (2024–2025)
- ICE Futures: Canola price data
- Alberta Agriculture: Seasonal price trends
- Farm Credit Canada: Crop outlooks for 2024–2025
- TradingEconomics.com: Canola market trends
- MarketsFarm: Canola news and analysis